Michaël van de Poppe

“This has been a fascinating conversation with @1basemoney. I love data. I look at data for all the investment decisions that I make, and that’s why I wanted to talk with him about the Power Law. What’s the actual valuation of #Bitcoin? Where are we in the cycle? His model predicts Bitcoin’s price could reach $1.1 million by 2033. Fascinating. Matthew Mezinskis built the model. He's the macro researcher behind the #Bitcoin Power Law model, and his claim isn't that Bitcoin will moon someday, it's that Bitcoin follows a mathematical growth curve, has for its entire life, and is currently trading at about half of where that curve says it should be. His summary of the math: "Let's go out about eight years. We should be at a million dollars per Bitcoin." The mechanics are almost absurdly simple. Every 13% increase in Bitcoin's lifespan doubles the price. That compounds into roughly a 10x every eight years. No halving cycles, no narratives, no adoption guesses, just time and a curve that's held for over a decade while skeptics called it broken. We cover: - The power law explained: why price scales with time, not hype - Why he says the current price sits at half of fair value on the curve - Power law vs stock-to-flow: why the exponential models failed and this one didn't - What a decade of data says about the curve holding - Bitcoin vs gold, and where this ends if the math keeps working Thanks for @OKX for being the sponsor of todays episode! Timestamps: 00:00 - Introductio 01:10 - Bitcoin's Recent Moves 04:06 - Bitcoin's Cycles 07:21 - Bitcoin vs Traditional Assets 10:57 - The Power Law Explained 11:23 - Bitcoin vs Gold 21:16 - Power Law vs Stock-to-Flow 34:56 - The Power Law In Pricing 46:48 - What History Tells Us 51:07 - Bitcoin's Market Position 01:00:26 - Bitcoin's Global Role”

“I wouldn't be surprised if we're seeing a pretty violent move upwards on $ETH from here. It's holding support again, if this tests the $2,520 area and starts to break upwards, maybe we're actually going to see $3,000? https://t.co/D5oSRcB9fx”

“That's the test of #Bitcoin which I wanted to see here. Expecting to see that we're not losing this level and, as a matter of fact, are going to see another leg upwards towards the highs. If this is lost, $74,000 is next. https://t.co/7VkJ1JrRla https://t.co/u3T5n3ERid”

“Nothing goes up in a straight line. The same goes for many of the memecoins, $CASHCAT, $MARSCOIN and others. I'm expecting to see the end of the correction close, or we'll have a way deeper correction with #Bitcoin at $74,000 and you'd be able to be buying all those memecoins for a massive discount. First area of interest is at $0.115 for $MARSCOIN.”

“I'm looking at a test at $78,000 for #Bitcoin. This is a zoomed out chart, meaning that if the $78,000 level is lost, I'm expecting to see a deeper correction taking place towards the $74,000 regions. That's going to be a phenomenal opportunity across the board. https://t.co/svQn6jhkgV”

“This is where I start to become interested into positions on bitcoin:native. If this area at $78,000 doesn't hold at support, we'll be seeing a significantly deeper correction towards $74,000 as it will take out all the lows. By the way, I stand by the fact that I think that the $74,000 area probably will be the low of this entire correction and that we're on route for bullish continuation after.”

“I don't think the markets have seen anything yet. However, if this continues to accelerate, I strongly doubt we'll have a 3 year bull market. I think we get a 1.5-2 year violent bull market on #Bitcoin and #Altcoins that's comparable to the https://t.co/rFbY3kw4gd bubble (from 1998 on).”

“Fairly interesting bounce, but no interest from my side to be actively trading #Bitcoin. Other than that, a lot of people are questioning: Are we going to test the lows again? It's fairly simple. If Bitcoin somehow comes back down to $72,000-74,000 and doesn't quickly bounce from there, we're not in a bull market. On top of that, none of this recent interest in #Altcoins would occur if we're in a bear market. Don't overcomplicate things.”

“#Bitcoin is extremely cheap. We're still at the undervaluation part of the cycle. https://t.co/GEFcAnWlTO”

“This is such a phenomenal chart. $ETH vs. bitcoin:native signals that we're likely going to get more momentum this month on Ethereum as it's holding a higher timeframe support level. Would assume that the Clarity Act will help in that. https://t.co/mlYtLsf7il”

“It seems to be a matter of time until we're reaching $78,000 on #Bitcoin as a test again. Remember: it's still rangebound, so nothing to worry. https://t.co/WXIwtlWfPf https://t.co/jTHInk9ZQ9”

“Out of my $200,000 altcoin portfolio, I just made one position bigger than everything else. $25,000 into a single project. Not because I'm certain. Because conviction without sizing is just an opinion, and this is the one I'm willing to size. Bitcoin is copy-pasting its 2022 price action, social interest is firing again, and the on-chain trenches are alive, new projects on Robinhood are going parabolic. It has all the early-bull-market signals I've been waiting for. So in this video I show exactly where my conviction sits and why. What I cover: – Why this looks like the start of the cycle, not the end of a bounce, and the ethereum:0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca chart that shows how four-year downtrends actually flip – The @TechDev_52 framework connecting the business cycle to altcoin appetite – My full portfolio after the final adds, including why I bought bittensor:native – The one #altcoin that became my largest position: the thesis, the charts, and what has to stay true for it to keep that spot – How I plan to scale out and compound the profits instead of round-tripping them The last cycle taught me that being right about the market means nothing if your sizing doesn't reflect it. This time the portfolio matches the conviction. Full breakdown 👇”

“This is a magnificent sign. The markets are turning more towards #Altcoins as the opportunities are rising in that part of the entire ecosystem. Matter of time until we'll see more breakouts occur. https://t.co/McOimA8NAT”

“I don't think $SUI will be stalling and that's primarily due to the fact that I'm monitoring the Bitcoin pair. There's a massive bullish divergence slowly picking up momentum, meaning that there's still a mean reversion play to come. That could push the Bitcoin pair of SUI up another 50-60%.”

“I don't see a 'deep' correction on #Bitcoin happening. It's consolidating nicely. If there's an opportunity to be buying this <$74,000, I'd be very happy. Other than that, the level at $82,850 is still untested and I think we'll see this test happening in the coming weeks. https://t.co/XAMBikeUs4”