Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 8 Sept 2026, 11:35 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
I'm looking at a test at $78,000 for #Bitcoin. This is a zoomed out chart, meaning that if the $78,000 level is lost, I'm expecting to see a deeper correction taking place towards the $74,000 regions. That's going to be a phenomenal opportunity across the board. https://t.co/svQn6jhkgVView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,402 at 8 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,296 at 9 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 79295.66 / 78401.89 − 1 = +1.14%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -1.14%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “if the $78,000 level is lost, I'm expecting to see a deeper correction taking place towards the $74,000 regions.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $78,402
- Evaluation price
- $79,296
- Move
- +1.14%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0