Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 12 Oct 2026, 00:09 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:22 UTC
Ash Crypto
@AshCrypto
BREAKING: Bitcoin just confirmed its 4th consecutive weekly close above the 50-week Moving Average. Historically, this means the bottom is in and the new bull market has started. https://t.co/UFHeRCjw2zView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $83,862 at 12 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,344 at 13 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC.
r = 81343.98 / 83862.2 − 1 = -3.00%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -3.00%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Historically, this means the bottom is in and the new bull market has started.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $83,862
- Evaluation price
- $81,344
- Move
- -3.00%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0