Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 11 Oct 2026, 17:17 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:26 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
Quoting · 11 Oct 2026, 16:01 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin REFUSES To Crash - Even Peter Schiff Admits He’s Surprised 00:00 Can We Trust the Fed’s Inflation and Jobs Data? 04:41 Did the Fed Hike Rates Into a Weakening Economy? 06:37 The Bond Bear Market and Rising Mortgage Rates 10:17 America’s High-Debt, High-Interest-Rate Trap 14:44 Can AI Actually Save the U.S. Economy? 21:37 The Massive Debt Problem Behind the AI Boom 24:36 Money Printing and the Coming Debt Spiral 26:59 Why the U.S. Housing Market Could Break 30:04 Has the Stock Market Already Started Breaking? 34:03 Bitcoin, Gold and the Debasement Trade 36:00 Why Bitcoin Has Held Up While Gold Fell 38:29 How the Midterms Could Impact Bitcoin 47:34 How Should Families Protect Their Wealth? 51:11 Final ThoughtsPeter Schiff admits he's surprised Bitcoin held its gains while gold reversed its rally, but still expects Bitcoin to hit new lows "Gold lost pretty much the entire rally on all of the tough talk from the Fed about raising rates and fighting inflation. Bitcoin, on the other hand, held on to its gains." "Prior to that, gold had a big move and then a big correction. Bitcoin never had the big move. Bitcoin had the big move a long time ago, and Bitcoin went way down. So, Bitcoin was down around $60,000-ish before that news, and now it's $85,000. So Bitcoin has held on." "Whereas gold had gone up to $5,500, then had fallen to about $4,000. The news did shoot it back up to, like, $4,600, $4,700, but now it's right back down to $4,000. Whereas Bitcoin is not back down at $60,000." "Bitcoin hasn't given up those gains, which has surprised me a bit, because I expected Bitcoin to go down. So I don't really know what's holding it up. I do expect it to go down. I do expect it to make new lows. I just would have thought it would have happened already."View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $83,737 at 11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $82,396 at 12 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 82395.96 / 83737 − 1 = -1.60%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = +1.60%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I do expect it to go down. I do expect it to make new lows.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $83,737
- Evaluation price
- $82,396
- Move
- -1.60%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0