Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 11 Oct 2026, 16:10 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Quoting · 11 Oct 2026, 06:19 UTC · context given to the AI
You’re not bullish enough https://t.co/ezITQ2OOolIt's very simple. The #Bitcoin bull market has barely started, as we're still massively undervalued vs. literally every asset out there. You're not bullish enough. Erase the case of diminishing returns and just enjoy this cycle. https://t.co/WTOMKLHkqKView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $83,816 at 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $82,407 at 12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 82406.83 / 83816.37 − 1 = -1.68%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.68%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “The #Bitcoin bull market has barely started”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $83,816
- Evaluation price
- $82,407
- Move
- -1.68%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0