Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 5 Oct 2026, 02:11 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
Wendy O
@CryptoWendyO
Quoting · 4 Oct 2026, 18:22 UTC · context given to the AI
I can’t wait for $100,000 Bitcoin.Will you be happy at $100,000 Bitcoin? I will https://t.co/DimsAUrtnQView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $86,510 at 5 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $85,520 at 6 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC.
r = 85519.56 / 86509.66 − 1 = -1.14%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.14%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Will you be happy at $100,000 Bitcoin? I will”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $86,510
- Evaluation price
- $85,520
- Move
- -1.14%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0