Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 4 Oct 2026, 10:04 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Markets are turning back upwards for #Bitcoin and most of the altcoins. If Bitcoin breaks this high upwards, that would be great. https://t.co/eIW5CrZJGMView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $85,260 at 4 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $86,103 at 5 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 86102.62 / 85260.25 − 1 = +0.99%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +0.99%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Markets are turning back upwards for #Bitcoin and most of the altcoins.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $85,260
- Evaluation price
- $86,103
- Move
- +0.99%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0