Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 3 Oct 2026, 21:12 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
Wendy O
@CryptoWendyO
Quoting · 3 Oct 2026, 14:44 UTC · context given to the AI
If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 Midterm Elections, I’m going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America, $5,000! Thank you for your attention to this matter, and I look forward to signing those checks! https://t.co/YOkESiUBrcI will just buy more bitcoin with my $5000 bribe https://t.co/IOfTqgCdWYView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,709 at 3 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $85,853 at 4 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 85853.04 / 84708.57 − 1 = +1.35%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +1.35%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I will just buy more bitcoin with my $5000 bribe”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $84,709
- Evaluation price
- $85,853
- Move
- +1.35%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0