Prediction evidence
unscoredPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 2 Oct 2026, 13:58 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
Quoting · 2 Oct 2026, 13:08 UTC · context given to the AI
JUST IN: Bitcoin reclaims $87,000 45% chance it hits $100,000 this year https://t.co/vFA0waZgEDStill don’t get how there’s only a 45% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 this year when it feels like there’s a 100% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 this month. https://t.co/OvZECxf5vjView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “it feels like there’s a 100% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 this month.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- needs review · Unsupported horizon: "this month"
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- unscored
- Baseline price
- —
- Evaluation price
- —
- Move
- —
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- —
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0