Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 30 Sept 2026, 16:20 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:27 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
Quoting · 30 Sept 2026, 15:59 UTC · context given to the AI
The Daily Wolf On Yahoo Finance https://t.co/DffnHEDYuABitcoin is on track for its strongest quarter since late 2024, despite rates above 5% and high inflation "Bitcoin is about to close its strongest quarter since late 2024, its first green quarter in quite a long time. And that was while interest rates were soaring and have largely been above 5%. So Bitcoin didn't care about the high inflation numbers, and I don't expect it to pump because of fake low inflation numbers." "As much as I hate to say it, because I was one of those guys who said the cycle is not going to be a thing, that it doesn't matter anymore, it coincidentally topped on the exact day it was supposed to, and it has been in a bear market ever since. Maybe Bitcoin remains a beautifully uncorrelated, idiosyncratic asset that you want in your portfolio precisely because it's not correlated to anything else." "Some days it is correlated, because some days all assets are correlated when they coincidentally move in the same direction, or there's a piece of news that moves them temporarily. But if you zoom out and don't pay attention to the daily moves, Bitcoin is not correlated, and is probably entering its own cycle." "Bitcoin has made a new higher high, is above all meaningful moving averages, and is likely entering a new cycle regardless of what happens in the rest of the economy."View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,310 at 30 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $84,165 at 1 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 84164.71 / 84309.86 − 1 = -0.17%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -0.17%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Bitcoin has made a new higher high, is above all meaningful moving averages, and is likely entering a new cycle”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $84,310
- Evaluation price
- $84,165
- Move
- -0.17%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
