Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 30 Sept 2026, 12:35 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Great signs. US PCE Inflation comes out lower. US GDP comes out higher. Let's just continue trending higher with #Bitcoin and #Altcoins.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $85,258 at 30 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,708 at 1 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 83708.07 / 85258.3 − 1 = -1.82%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.82%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Let's just continue trending higher with #Bitcoin and #Altcoins.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $85,258
- Evaluation price
- $83,708
- Move
- -1.82%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0