Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 28 Sept 2026, 13:47 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:27 UTC

The Wolf Of All Streets

@scottmelker

Quoting · 28 Sept 2026, 13:01 UTC · context given to the AI

Bitcoin Falls To $82K After ETFs Just Bought $2.4 BILLION https://t.co/YFamPaupz9
Dave says being bond bullish is the same as being Bitcoin bullish "I keep saying to Mike that being bond bullish is actually the same thing as being Bitcoin bullish. If there were to be a big rally in bonds, it would benefit Bitcoin more, for a whole host of reasons." "But if you're incredibly bearish on bonds, then you can make an argument that that will be destructive for what we term risk assets." "I will, however, report something. We're now coming up on the one-year anniversary of a complete delinking between Bitcoin and risk assets, in fact, of crypto and the rest of risk assets. Where the crypto markets got absolutely hammered while stock markets and other risk markets did extremely well." "And so to say that it can't go in opposite direction is wrong. They can. But obviously, if you're having a massive sell-off, it won't."
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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Awaiting manual review

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset
Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction
▲ Bullish
Intent
inferred
Horizon
24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span
“Dave says being bond bullish is the same as being Bitcoin bullish”
Confidence
70%
Review state
needs review · Low confidence (70%)
Model / prompt
gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1

Outcome record

Status
unscored
Baseline price
—
Evaluation price
—
Move
—
Neutral threshold
±1.00%
Price provider
—
Evaluated at
13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Policy version
v1.0

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