Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 27 Sept 2026, 21:13 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
It would be great if #Bitcoin can flip this upwards, as then we'll see a new high being tested. https://t.co/z81hf7tqIkView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,676 at 27 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,181 at 28 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 83181.04 / 84675.79 − 1 = -1.77%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.77%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “It would be great if #Bitcoin can flip this upwards, as then we'll see a new high being tested.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $84,676
- Evaluation price
- $83,181
- Move
- -1.77%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0