Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 24 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Quoting · 22 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC · context given to the AI
Last episode: Henrik Zeberg predicts that #Bitcoin crashes 90%. This episode, one of the world's leading liquidity experts explains why the opposite is structurally locked in. "The West is bust, and the world is changed." Michael Howell (@crossbordercap) founded CrossBorder Capital and has spent decades tracking one variable: global liquidity. His argument is that governments have quietly stopped borrowing the normal way, and started printing without calling it printing: "Governments are issuing three month Treasury bills, and those Treasury bills are like printing money." Long-term debt has become too expensive to issue in a world of higher yields. So everything shifts to the short end, the debt gets rolled instead of repaid, and monetary inflation becomes the release valve. Not a policy choice. A structural one. And his model puts a number on what that means: for every 10% increase in global liquidity, Bitcoin's price has historically doubled. We cover: - Why "the West is bust", and why that makes printinginevitable, not optional - The debt refinancing wall: why governments can't issue real long-term debt anymore - His liquidity model, and the Bitcoin relationship inside it - Why monetary inflation quietly destroys wealth that isn't in the right assets - Why he says most people still have close to zero allocation to the one asset built for this environment - Aging demographics, AI, and the future of bonds Thanks to @OKX for being sponsor of todays show! Timestamps: 00:50 - The West Is Bust 03:01 - Debt Refinancing Explained 06:14 - Causes Of Monetary Inflation 09:05 - The Debt Liquidity Cycle 12:14 - Government Spending And Rates 14:50 - Aging Demographics And Policy 17:47 - Central Banks In A Changing Economy 21:04 - Assets In High Inflation 23:56 - Rate And Growth Projections 29:44 - Debt And Inflation On Assets 35:00 - Financial Crises And Liquidity 40:21 - Portfolio Strategy In Volatility 45:32 - AI And Interest Rates 51:23 - The Future Of BondsMichael Howell (@crossbordercap) just pointed at the country everyone's overlooking. "We're looking at a world where debt is a problem, and it's a problem for everybody. And in fact, the country that has the biggest debt problem by far is China." Not the US, which is where every debt headline points. China. His question is the one that matters: what happens when the Chinese start to print money too? What assets will they buy? His framework has an answer, and it's the same one he applies everywhere else: gold, and increasingly, Bitcoin. When one of the world's largest, most indebted economies is forced into the same monetary inflation trade as the West, that's not a regional story anymore. His broader point ties back to why he thinks central banks everywhere are trapped: aging demographics that no politician will touch, a capital war between the US and China that rules out austerity, and a tax base that's already squeezed dry. Print money or raise debt. And raising debt gets harder every year that yields stay high. Full conversation on New Era FinanceView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $83,645 at 24 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $84,003 at 25 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 84002.66 / 83644.95 − 1 = +0.43%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +0.43%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “for every 10% increase in global liquidity, Bitcoin's price has historically doubled.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $83,645
- Evaluation price
- $84,003
- Move
- +0.43%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0