Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 23 Sept 2026, 14:34 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:27 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
BREAKING: BITCOIN CRASHES TO PRICES NOT SEEN SINCE MONDAYView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,521 at 23 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,645 at 24 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 83644.95 / 84521.35 − 1 = -1.04%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = +1.04%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “BITCOIN CRASHES TO PRICES NOT SEEN SINCE MONDAY”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $84,521
- Evaluation price
- $83,645
- Move
- -1.04%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0