Prediction evidence

CryptoQuant said $BTC closed above its 365-day moving average at $80.5K for the first time since March 2023, confirming a new bull market. The firm said Bitcoin is now trading near $86K and that the same 365-day MA called the 2019 and 2023 bull markets as well as the late-2021 and November 2025 bear markets. At the same time, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said he expects this cycle to deliver 3-5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market. CryptoQuant said on-chain indicators flipped to the early stages of a bull market in mid-August and that Bitcoin has already cleared the $76K-$81K supply wall where long-term holders and 7+ year-old OG coins sold in large volume this year. The firm put next resistance at $88K-$90K, coinciding with the upper band of trader on-chain realized price. Ki Young Ju said MVRV never fell below 1 this cycle, meaning holders as a whole never went underwater. He also said realized cap is rising, OG whales have stopped selling, futures whales built large longs near the bottom, and the PnL Index’s 365-day moving average is now forming a meaningful inflection. He argued a larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both the explosive upside and the 80% crashes of earlier cycles. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, Ki Young Ju said, the trade-off that invites long-horizon capital instead of hot money.