Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 22 Sept 2026, 21:44 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:15 UTC
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,747 at 22 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,677 at 23 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 2677.45 / 2747.44 − 1 = -2.55%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.55%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Ethereum to $3,000.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $2,747
- Evaluation price
- $2,677
- Move
- -2.55%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0