Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 22 Sept 2026, 20:47 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
The higher timeframe picture of #Bitcoin is simple: the train doesn't want to stop. At this point, it's clearly continuing its upwards momentum and the only levels that I think we'll pause on: - $91K - $98K Depending on the strength of this move, we'll go to the first or the second.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $86,287 at 22 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $84,235 at 23 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 84235.47 / 86286.98 − 1 = -2.38%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.38%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “it's clearly continuing its upwards momentum”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $86,287
- Evaluation price
- $84,235
- Move
- -2.38%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0