Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 22 Sept 2026, 17:35 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
Koroush AK
@KoroushAK
Quoting · 8 Sept 2026, 20:56 UTC · context given to the AI
BTC The 2026 "bear market" started when we broke below the $84.5K level. If we break the current $82.5k level, I find it unlikely we won't break past that $84.5k level. Once that happens, I'll be looking to get much more aggressively involved in the markets. https://t.co/eEoXzL4QvuBTC Price exploded past our $82.5k breakout level. Then as expected past $84.5k. If you missed the breakout, careful entering right before 90k resistance. Key Support: $84.5k Key Resistance: $90k https://t.co/1yxXVmz7ow https://t.co/0HHrUqFm0kView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $86,588 at 22 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $84,314 at 23 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 84314.48 / 86587.58 − 1 = -2.63%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.63%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Price exploded past our $82.5k breakout level. Then as expected past $84.5k.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $86,588
- Evaluation price
- $84,314
- Move
- -2.63%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0