Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 21 Sept 2026, 09:31 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Fantastic run on $NEAR and I would be very, very pleased if it breaks through here. In the short term, I doubt it. I think that liquidity will flow towards other narratives that are going to follow $NEAR in its footsteps. Likely it will consolidate here, other assets run, #Bitcoin corrects and $NEAR goes back to $3 and then runs again later in Q4.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,636 at 21 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $86,239 at 22 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 86238.82 / 84635.5 − 1 = +1.89%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -1.89%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “#Bitcoin corrects”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $84,636
- Evaluation price
- $86,239
- Move
- +1.89%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0