Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 20 Sept 2026, 08:30 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
A corrective day, which isn't unhealthy given the momentum we've seen in the markets for #Bitcoin and #Altcoins. Generally, you'd want to see us flip back above $80,600, as that would trigger the next run toward the highs. https://t.co/6wfup098ZqView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,228 at 20 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,727 at 21 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 83727 / 80228.2 − 1 = +4.36%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +4.36%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “you'd want to see us flip back above $80,600, as that would trigger the next run toward the highs.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $80,228
- Evaluation price
- $83,727
- Move
- +4.36%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0