Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 19 Sept 2026, 09:32 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
#Bitcoin is doing great as it's back again at the range highs. I'm not sure whether we'll stick with that for now. My main scenario is: - We'll test the recent high. - We'll consolidate for a little bit. - We'll have a leverage liquidity flush on #Altcoins and a correction on #Bitcoin. That drop, to, maybe $79,000 or perhaps $78,200, that's the one that I'd be bidding.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,299 at 19 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,430 at 20 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 80430.01 / 81298.84 − 1 = -1.07%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = +1.07%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “We'll have a leverage liquidity flush on #Altcoins and a correction on #Bitcoin.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $81,299
- Evaluation price
- $80,430
- Move
- -1.07%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0