Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 17 Sept 2026, 18:58 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:28 UTC

The Wolf Of All Streets

@scottmelker

Quoting · 17 Sept 2026, 17:10 UTC · context given to the AI

Brian Armstrong On The Failed Clarity Act 0:25 Why the final Clarity Act draft was a good bill 1:43 What actually killed the Clarity Act 5:25 Is the Clarity Act dead for good? 7:42 Did the banks shoot themselves in the foot on stablecoin rewards? 9:26 What the SEC and CFTC can do without Congress 10:51 Regulation Crypto and the problem with accredited investor rules 13:54 Can rulemaking last without legislation? 16:34 Launching through litigation, and why no bill could help Coinbase 19:12 Tokenized stocks and bringing them to the US 23:31 Building the everything exchange 27:05 Agentic finance and AI agents paying each other 29:32 AI doomerism and the history of moral panics 33:39 Has bitcoin bottomed? The $400K by 2030 case 35:27 Giving away 1 BTC to early Coinbase users in 2012
Brian Armstrong on Bitcoin potentially hitting $400,000 by 2030 "Predicting the future is always difficult, and none of this is investment advice." "It's gone through many of these cycles now, where it'll have run-ups, oftentimes around the Bitcoin halving events, where the amount of Bitcoin being mined gets cut in half, and then you'll see drawdowns, and usually they last about a year or so. We've just gone through one of those recently." "Nobody knows for sure, but if it follows similar patterns to the past, hopefully we've seen the bottom of this cycle around 60K or so on Bitcoin, and it's up a little bit from that now." "My hope is by 2030 we could see a $300,000, $400,000 Bitcoin. I think it'll keep going through these cycles." "And then of course, all the other parts of crypto are growing like wildfire regardless of the price of Bitcoin. Stablecoins and perpetual futures and prediction markets and agentic finance are just growing really nicely, regardless of what the price of Bitcoin is doing."
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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Awaiting manual review

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset
Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction
▲ Bullish
Intent
inferred
Horizon
24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span
“My hope is by 2030 we could see a $300,000, $400,000 Bitcoin.”
Confidence
60%
Review state
needs review · Low confidence (60%); Unsupported horizon: "by 2030"
Model / prompt
gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1

Outcome record

Status
unscored
Baseline price
—
Evaluation price
—
Move
—
Neutral threshold
±1.00%
Price provider
—
Evaluated at
13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Policy version
v1.0

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