Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 16 Sept 2026, 18:23 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
Wendy O
@CryptoWendyO
Quoting · 16 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · context given to the AI
JUST IN: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill vote postponedbitcoin:native WE ARE GOING SO MUCH HIGHER AND DO NOT NEED CLARITY Trade with my link https://t.co/rjYBb3Ws12 https://t.co/vVk2kmYMSH https://t.co/mf2rPfXydEView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $75,556 at 16 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,506 at 17 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 76506.41 / 75555.99 − 1 = +1.26%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +1.26%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “WE ARE GOING SO MUCH HIGHER”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $75,556
- Evaluation price
- $76,506
- Move
- +1.26%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0