Prediction evidence

neutralPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 16 Sept 2026, 03:40 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:28 UTC

The Wolf Of All Streets

@scottmelker

Quoting · 13 Sept 2026, 17:59 UTC · context given to the AI

Bitcoin Is Winning As Treasury Takes Power From The Fed | @CaitlinLong_ 00:00 Tokenized Deposits Are Finally Taking Off 02:12 Why Tokenization Is Suddenly Moving So Fast 03:24 Tokenized Deposits Could Replace Stablecoins 07:24 Genius Act vs. Clarity Act 09:20 What Crypto Was Actually Built For 11:02 Bridging Traditional Finance and Crypto 15:04 Is Operation Chokepoint 2.0 Still Alive? 18:09 What Really Happened to Silvergate? 26:44 How the Midterms Change Crypto Regulation 34:52 The Bond Market Vigilantes Are Back 36:29 Is Another Bond Market Crisis Coming? 38:29 Treasury Is Taking Power From the Fed 39:40 Why All of This Is Bullish for Bitcoin 40:19 Can the Fiat System Keep Surviving? 42:23 Why Bitcoin Is Going Much Higher 42:43 Don’t Give Up on Self-Custody 44:07 Final Thoughts
Caitlin Long on the outcry Kraken faced over a master account it still hasn't been allowed to use "Look at the outcry when the Fed gave Kraken its master account. It got announced in March. If you look at the database though, they signed the documents in January." "Look at what the banks did. The screaming that took place from Elizabeth Warren and that crew was insane." "And if you go look at how that bank is regulated, they have the same charter we do. They're going through a full-scope bank exam with CAMELS scores, bankers know what that means, every year. That is a far higher bar than what a trust company or a money transmitter has to satisfy." "But the wild thing is that the CEO of Kraken Bank testified publicly about a month ago that even though they got the account in January, the Fed had not let them operationalize it yet." "And if you put the puzzle pieces together, they had a 12-month trial. It's 8 months into the 12-month trial and they hadn't let them turn it on yet." "So it was never real, is what I concluded. I'm not shocked, because the Fed just plays games."
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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

  1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $75,755 at 16 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC.
  2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,365 at 17 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC.
  3. r = 76364.58 / 75755.41 − 1 = +0.80%
  4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.80% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset
Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction
▲ Bullish
Intent
explicit
Horizon
24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span
“Why Bitcoin Is Going Much Higher”
Confidence
90%
Review state
auto accepted
Model / prompt
gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1

Outcome record

Status
neutral
Baseline price
$75,755
Evaluation price
$76,365
Move
+0.80%
Neutral threshold
±1.00%
Price provider
coinbase
Evaluated at
13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Policy version
v1.0

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