Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 15 Sept 2026, 09:21 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Quoting · 15 Sept 2026, 01:10 UTC · context given to the AI
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Democrats reject Republican crypto Clarity Act draft bill over ethics language.Clearly the reason why the markets are selling off. #Bitcoin is now looking to sweep the lows. It's a volatile 48 hours, as we've got the Clarity Act and the FOMC meeting. If there's a further dip, I'm willing to buy this. https://t.co/M4JU9NVCCxView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $76,947 at 15 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $75,924 at 16 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 75924.04 / 76946.71 − 1 = -1.33%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.33%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “If there's a further dip, I'm willing to buy this.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $76,947
- Evaluation price
- $75,924
- Move
- -1.33%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0