Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 14 Sept 2026, 08:12 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Quite a big week coming up, isn't it? - Clarity Act vote. - FOMC meeting. - BOJ. All of these factors are going to move the markets, so I'd be looking to stay relatively calm on the leverage side of things on $BTC. Other than that, with this bounce upwards, it seems very likely that we're going to chase for longs.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,705 at 14 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,955 at 15 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 76955.06 / 77705.03 − 1 = -0.97%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -0.97%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “with this bounce upwards, it seems very likely that we're going to chase for longs.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $77,705
- Evaluation price
- $76,955
- Move
- -0.97%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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