Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 12 Sept 2026, 17:55 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:28 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
Quoting · 12 Sept 2026, 15:52 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin Is Built For The Economy Nobody Sees Coming | @1MarkMoss 00:00 Why Everyone Is Positioned for the Wrong Economy 01:22 Bitcoin’s 20% Breakout and the Regime Change 02:07 What the Whales Were Doing Before Bitcoin Exploded 06:12 Druckenmiller Rotates From AI Into Bitcoin 13:04 Why Bessent’s Treasury Intervention Matters 15:18 Why Higher Rates May Not Kill This Economy 17:15 Could U.S. GDP Growth Hit 6%? 22:52 Can the U.S. Handle $40 Trillion of Debt? 24:56 Building a New Long-Term Bitcoin Price Model 28:59 Why Fed Rate Cuts May Not Matter 31:06 Where Bitcoin Fits Into the AI Boom 36:06 Mark Moss Reveals His New Bitcoin Model 40:24 Why a $1 Million Bitcoin Isn’t Crazy 45:29 What Bitcoin Treasury Companies Got Wrong 50:44 Saylor, STRC, and Strategy’s Next Move 55:57 Is the Bitcoin Bottom Finally In?Mark Moss puts 80% odds on $58K being the bottom "I believe the bottom is in. I would say probably with about 80% probability. I think the bottom was in at the level that we got to, at the $58K level." "Could we get back and retest into the mid 60s? We certainly could. I think maybe we could retest at the 200 week moving average kind of thing, and I'm not a technical analyst." "But I would say the low, back at whatever it was, at 58, I think that was the low. I don't see us dropping back below that." "I was certainly on the bandwagon, Scott, that the four year cycle was dead. Some people are still hanging on to that. I don't see how you technically could." "What's happened is it's sort of turned into this self fulfilling prophecy where people want to front run it. And now they're front running getting back in, and it's happening a month early."View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,191 at 12 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,299 at 13 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 77298.6 / 77191.42 − 1 = +0.14%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +0.14%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I believe the bottom is in. I would say probably with about 80% probability.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $77,191
- Evaluation price
- $77,299
- Move
- +0.14%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0