Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 12 Sept 2026, 14:49 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
There's a lot of compression happening with ethereum:0xfaba6f8e4a5e8ab82f62fe7c39859fa577269be3. That means that we're likely going to see a strong breakout in the coming period from this. Much rather I'd want to be looking for longs here. If there's another dip taking place, then I'm looking for entries around the $0.31 area. What's the target, you'd ask. Well, honestly, this would be looking at a potential target of $0.50 first.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,539 at 12 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,492 at 13 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 2491.82 / 2539.18 − 1 = -1.87%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.87%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “we're likely going to see a strong breakout in the coming period from this.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $2,539
- Evaluation price
- $2,492
- Move
- -1.87%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0