Prediction evidence

Everyone's euphoric about gold and done with #Bitcoin. So I asked Lyn Alden the direct question: which one wins the next two to three years? She owns both. She's owned both for years. But pushed for a pick: "Gun to my head, if I had to say which one I think outperforms, I would say Bitcoin. Because I think that gold is somewhat euphoric at the moment... and I think that sentiment on Bitcoin is somewhat unfairly negative." Her gold logic is more precise than "it's a bubble", she explicitly says it isn't one: "They went from undervalued to somewhere in the ballpark of fairly valued pretty quickly." The problem is what that does to the trade: "I would not be surprised to see precious metals fall 50%. But I would not be surprised to see them grind higher either. The overall asymmetry is not there anymore." Not wrong. Just no longer asymmetric. That's an allocator talking, not a tourist. And her Bitcoin case is the mirror image: "It's been artificially lumped in with the software stocks... correlating with them oddly closely for no particular reason." The treasury-company washout, the quantum FUD, the four-year-cycle test, in her read, worked through: the majority of the pain is behind us. The line that frames it all: "Just because something becomes extreme doesn't mean it's wrong." Nvidia stayed overbought for years because the fundamentals were real. Gold's move is backed. But backed and asymmetric are different things. One asset priced for its advantages. One priced for its fears. She's betting on the one priced for fears.