Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 11 Sept 2026, 09:29 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
XO
@Trader_XO
In reply to · 11 Sept 2026, 09:27 UTC · context given to the AI
@Trader_XO how are you planning to manage risk if it breaks 76k?@dea_yora Currently have downside exposure via alts In terms of bitcoin - still positioned short and took some off overnight... Looking for a reason to cut and reverse...View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,004 at 11 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,336 at 12 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 77336.03 / 77004.43 − 1 = +0.43%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -0.43%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “In terms of bitcoin - still positioned short”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $77,004
- Evaluation price
- $77,336
- Move
- +0.43%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0