Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 9 Sept 2026, 20:05 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
To be honest, I don't think that we'll continue to be run upwards (for now). Quite a weak bounce, and we still need to hold $78,000 to continue going up. If this doesn't hold $78,000, this can be one of those hard sweeps on the markets as I'd be willing to be buying anything around $74,000 for #Bitcoin. Those will also be magnificent opportunities for #Altcoins.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,304 at 9 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,239 at 10 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 77239.02 / 78304.44 − 1 = -1.36%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = +1.36%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I don't think that we'll continue to be run upwards (for now).”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $78,304
- Evaluation price
- $77,239
- Move
- -1.36%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0