Prediction evidence

Quoting · 8 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC · context given to the AI

This has been a fascinating conversation with @1basemoney. I love data. I look at data for all the investment decisions that I make, and that’s why I wanted to talk with him about the Power Law. What’s the actual valuation of #Bitcoin? Where are we in the cycle? His model predicts Bitcoin’s price could reach $1.1 million by 2033. Fascinating. Matthew Mezinskis built the model. He's the macro researcher behind the #Bitcoin Power Law model, and his claim isn't that Bitcoin will moon someday, it's that Bitcoin follows a mathematical growth curve, has for its entire life, and is currently trading at about half of where that curve says it should be. His summary of the math: "Let's go out about eight years. We should be at a million dollars per Bitcoin." The mechanics are almost absurdly simple. Every 13% increase in Bitcoin's lifespan doubles the price. That compounds into roughly a 10x every eight years. No halving cycles, no narratives, no adoption guesses, just time and a curve that's held for over a decade while skeptics called it broken. We cover: - The power law explained: why price scales with time, not hype - Why he says the current price sits at half of fair value on the curve - Power law vs stock-to-flow: why the exponential models failed and this one didn't - What a decade of data says about the curve holding - Bitcoin vs gold, and where this ends if the math keeps working Thanks for @OKX for being the sponsor of todays episode! Timestamps: 00:00 - Introductio 01:10 - Bitcoin's Recent Moves 04:06 - Bitcoin's Cycles 07:21 - Bitcoin vs Traditional Assets 10:57 - The Power Law Explained 11:23 - Bitcoin vs Gold 21:16 - Power Law vs Stock-to-Flow 34:56 - The Power Law In Pricing 46:48 - What History Tells Us 51:07 - Bitcoin's Market Position 01:00:26 - Bitcoin's Global Role