Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 8 Sept 2026, 20:56 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
Koroush AK
@KoroushAK
BTC The 2026 "bear market" started when we broke below the $84.5K level. If we break the current $82.5k level, I find it unlikely we won't break past that $84.5k level. Once that happens, I'll be looking to get much more aggressively involved in the markets. https://t.co/eEoXzL4QvuView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,482 at 8 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,304 at 9 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 78304.44 / 78482.45 − 1 = -0.23%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -0.23%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “If we break the current $82.5k level, I find it unlikely we won't break past that $84.5k level.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $78,482
- Evaluation price
- $78,304
- Move
- -0.23%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0