Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 5 Sept 2026, 15:52 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
In reply to · 5 Sept 2026, 15:50 UTC · context given to the AI
BREAKING: 50% chance Bitcoin hits $85,000 within the next month https://t.co/sSAtIhi6ro@Kalshi_Crypto Make that the next week*View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,802 at 5 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $77,364 at 12 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 77363.97 / 79802.01 − 1 = -3.06%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -3.06%against a neutral band of ±2.50% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 7 days (stated in post)
- Evidence span
- “Make that the next week*”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $79,802
- Evaluation price
- $77,364
- Move
- -3.06%
- Neutral threshold
- ±2.50%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0