Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 4 Sept 2026, 16:32 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Quoting · 4 Sept 2026, 11:49 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin 21-day EMA crossed above its 200-day EMA Previous signals since 2020: 6-month median: +28.4% 1-year median: +82.8% 6-month win rate: 90% But please keep waiting for lower https://t.co/zdStHMK08hThe markets are copy/pasting the breakout of 2022/2023 for #Bitcoin. The only thing is that it's much faster in the cycle. Does the cycle still exist? Of course, there will be cycles, question is whether it's the 4-year cycle. Ultimately, bull market from here. https://t.co/2h5zNRubNlView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,751 at 4 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,057 at 5 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 80056.53 / 79750.77 − 1 = +0.38%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +0.38%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Ultimately, bull market from here.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $79,751
- Evaluation price
- $80,057
- Move
- +0.38%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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