Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 4 Sept 2026, 01:14 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Ansem 🐂🀄️
@blknoiz06
flash crash in september at some point but from higher i don't think we go below these numbers. quote me on it bitcoin:native $74k zcash:native $750 ethereum:native $2,350 solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 $95 hyperliquid:native $73 https://t.co/D8j5a1DCp7View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,507 at 4 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,452 at 5 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC.
r = 2452.14 / 2506.88 − 1 = -2.18%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.18%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “ethereum:native $2,350”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $2,507
- Evaluation price
- $2,452
- Move
- -2.18%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0