Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 3 Sept 2026, 21:40 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
Wendy O
@CryptoWendyO
Quoting · 3 Sept 2026, 19:01 UTC · context given to the AI
This is the monthly Bitcoin chart... $90,000 is easy $100,000 is easy Things are about to get even more stupid than they already are this bull run Trade with my link https://t.co/rjYBb3Ws12 https://t.co/8aTLAbS9Jb https://t.co/PJsGfqN038bitcoin:native HIT $82,000 AND IM AT A STUPID DOCTOR'S APPT IVE HAD SCHEDULED FOR MONTHS AND CAN'T COME ONCHAIN AND PLAY HIGHER! https://t.co/H5nNhG0LN1View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,600 at 3 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,654 at 4 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 79654.13 / 81600.18 − 1 = -2.38%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.38%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “HIGHER!”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $81,600
- Evaluation price
- $79,654
- Move
- -2.38%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0