Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 3 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Ansem 🐂🀄️
@blknoiz06
Quoting · 29 Aug 2026, 14:28 UTC · context given to the AI
buying zcash at $800 is like buying bitcoin at $800 https://t.co/HCsgpnZ0yqbuying zcash at $948 is like buying bitcoin at $948 https://t.co/eTfJZtIJGF https://t.co/NUEcpU8QENView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,055 at 3 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,470 at 4 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 79469.85 / 81055.04 − 1 = -1.96%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.96%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “buying zcash at $948 is like buying bitcoin at $948”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $81,055
- Evaluation price
- $79,470
- Move
- -1.96%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0