Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 3 Sept 2026, 15:36 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Quoting · 3 Sept 2026, 09:06 UTC · context given to the AI
Quite honestly, this looks like we're going to see much more upside on the markets. The correction is most likely over, meaning that I expect #Bitcoin to continue to run to $82,700. https://t.co/KDdN6CRpilIndeed, the correction on #Bitcoin was over. We're going towards a new yearly high above $82,700 and we might continue to rally to $90,000. https://t.co/7oMTbkzDDR https://t.co/Xp61I78n5uView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,367 at 3 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,423 at 4 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 79422.95 / 81366.51 − 1 = -2.39%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.39%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “We're going towards a new yearly high above $82,700 and we might continue to rally to $90,000.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $81,367
- Evaluation price
- $79,423
- Move
- -2.39%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0