Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 2 Sept 2026, 21:36 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:16 UTC
Altcoin Daily
@AltcoinDaily
Pantera Capital's Dan Morehead: "I think this has really ignited a rally in things like #bitcoin." "There isn't a real way out for countries like the United States.. I think that's what's driving people into #crypto." "Bitcoin has historically gone up about 70% per year. And paper money is debasing at 3.4% per year.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,266 at 2 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,600 at 3 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 81600.18 / 77266.24 − 1 = +5.61%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +5.61%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I think this has really ignited a rally in things like #bitcoin.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $77,266
- Evaluation price
- $81,600
- Move
- +5.61%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0