Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 1 Sept 2026, 12:17 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
XO
@Trader_XO
In reply to · 1 Sept 2026, 12:13 UTC · context given to the AI
@Trader_XO yep 2027 eth is going to melt faces@ExitLiqCapital Eventually... 0.75 - might take a while but will be worth it imo https://t.co/NayB78NEZ6View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,445 at 1 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,377 at 2 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 2376.65 / 2445.17 − 1 = -2.80%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.80%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Eventually... 0.75 - might take a while but will be worth it imo”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $2,445
- Evaluation price
- $2,377
- Move
- -2.80%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0