Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 1 Sept 2026, 12:08 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin:native is taking the lows and finds itself back again at either $76K or $77K. The range is clearly defined, and what does that mean? Exactly, below the range low and/or the range low is where I'm getting interested. https://t.co/MtBKHGE6CAView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,969 at 1 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,564 at 2 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 76563.52 / 77968.98 − 1 = -1.80%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.80%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin:native is taking the lows and finds itself back again at either $76K or $77K.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $77,969
- Evaluation price
- $76,564
- Move
- -1.80%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
Request a correction
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction