Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 1 Sept 2026, 07:39 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
#Bitcoin remains to be stuck in the range, which means that, after rejecting the highs, I wouldn't be surprised if we're going to be seeing a little sweep towards the lows again. https://t.co/5GXe7I1BadView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,610 at 1 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,436 at 2 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC.
r = 77436.24 / 78609.92 − 1 = -1.49%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = +1.49%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I wouldn't be surprised if we're going to be seeing a little sweep towards the lows again.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $78,610
- Evaluation price
- $77,436
- Move
- -1.49%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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