Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 1 Sept 2026, 05:04 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:23 UTC
Ash Crypto
@AshCrypto
BREAKING : 🇺🇸 Bitcoin Spot ETFs have bought $3.52 billion worth of Bitcoin in August. The strongest monthly buying since September 2025. Institutional demand is coming back. https://t.co/CQHysGVoPDView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,149 at 1 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,606 at 2 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC.
r = 77606.33 / 79148.96 − 1 = -1.95%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.95%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Institutional demand is coming back.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $79,149
- Evaluation price
- $77,606
- Move
- -1.95%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0