Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 1 Sept 2026, 03:56 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
Wendy O
@CryptoWendyO
When Frankie went viral back in 2020ish for saying BITCOIN we had the lost epic run of all time. May the same price action find you all and you retire your families. HIGHER https://t.co/PP1K0WCTknView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,654 at 1 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,512 at 2 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC.
r = 77512.45 / 78653.94 − 1 = -1.45%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.45%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “HIGHER”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $78,654
- Evaluation price
- $77,512
- Move
- -1.45%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0