Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 30 Aug 2026, 04:29 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:16 UTC
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,456 at 30 Aug 2026, 05:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,417 at 31 Aug 2026, 05:00 UTC.
r = 2417.16 / 2456.22 − 1 = -1.59%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.59%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Ethereum looks PRIMED”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $2,456
- Evaluation price
- $2,417
- Move
- -1.59%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0