Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 28 Aug 2026, 18:23 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
At first I had the assumption that we were going to bounce up quickly. However, fast rejection at $78,000 marks weakness for #Bitcoin. If this continues to fall, just like last week, we might get some more liquidation wicks and the following levels become important to me: $75,800-76,200 $74,000 Those are likely going to be ideal for accumulation purposes.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,545 at 28 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,153 at 29 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 78152.99 / 77544.63 − 1 = +0.78%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -0.78%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “If this continues to fall, just like last week, we might get some more liquidation wicks and the following levels become important to me: $75,800-76,200 $74,000”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $77,545
- Evaluation price
- $78,153
- Move
- +0.78%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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