Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 28 Aug 2026, 12:53 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
Quoting · 27 Aug 2026, 14:32 UTC · context given to the AI
BREAKING: Our traders forecast Bitcoin will crash to $56,000 this year https://t.co/6yMGAer76b#Bitcoin / $BTC Don’t overthink it fellas. Up and to the right. New all time highs are a magnet and every dip is a gift. https://t.co/zXg6bxs8Zn https://t.co/hBhSxZxFadView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,409 at 28 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,585 at 29 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 77584.62 / 79408.95 − 1 = -2.30%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.30%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Up and to the right.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $79,409
- Evaluation price
- $77,585
- Move
- -2.30%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0