Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 28 Aug 2026, 11:53 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
The Crypto Dog 📈
@TheCryptoDog
In reply to · 28 Aug 2026, 08:50 UTC · context given to the AI
If you started from say $1k in crypto now, how would you try to make it big?@btc_charlie Buy and hold BITCOIN the only coin that isn't a shitcoin. Wouldn't touch any of that crap. Bitcoin only.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,606 at 28 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,582 at 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 77581.74 / 79606.02 − 1 = -2.54%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.54%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Buy and hold BITCOIN the only coin that isn't a shitcoin.”
- Confidence
- 100%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $79,606
- Evaluation price
- $77,582
- Move
- -2.54%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0